A Must Read: See Why Donald Trump Will Beat Kamala Harris

Former President Donald Trump is now favored to beat Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, according to Nate Silver’s latest forecast.

This marks the first time Trump has been favored since August 3.

While the election remains a tight race, Silver’s model shows Trump with a slight advantage over Harris.

The key factor driving this shift is Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state where Trump currently leads in the polls.

Silver notes that it has been “quite a while” since a poll showed Harris leading in Pennsylvania, which may be the tipping point state.

While Harris has made gains in national polls, Silver’s model applies a convention bounce adjustment to her numbers, which could impact her chances.

The model gives Harris a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but not the Electoral College.

In contrast, FiveThirtyEight’s election model still gives Harris an advantage, with a 59% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 40%.

However, the race remains highly competitive, and both candidates are likely to focus intensely on key swing states in the coming weeks.