US 2024: Four Reasons Why Trump Will Win Presidential Election

Former President Donald Trump remains a strong contender for the 2024 presidential election despite facing numerous challenges.

And here are the four key factors that contribute to his potential success:

1. UNHAPPY VOTERS: The Biden White House argues the economy is in good shape, with unemployment down to a near-historic low of 3.7% from 6.3% when Trump left office and inflation cooling from a peak over 9% in June 2022 to 3.4% as of December. Large swaths of the public, including many voters of color and young voters, believe otherwise. They point to wages not keeping pace with the costs of essential goods and services such as groceries, cars, houses, child and elder care. When Biden talks about the economy, Americans think about affordability, not economic indicators. Opinion polls show that voters by a large margin view Republicans as better stewards of the economy, even though Trump has offered only vague proposals.

2. SPEAKING TO FEAR: Voters are unsettled for reasons that extend far beyond the economy. Trump speaks to the worries, real or not, that many white Americans have in a country that is becoming increasingly diverse and more culturally progressive. There is also a pervasive sense of losing ground, that the cornerstones of American life – home ownership, a decent wage that keeps pace with inflation, a college education – are becoming more out of reach for many. Polls show voters are worried about crime and nervous about the flow of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally. Trump is adept at channeling and packaging those fears, while still presenting himself as someone who comes from outside the U.S. political system. He is both arsonist and firefighter, who declares the country is in chaos and then offers himself as a savior.

3. TRUMP’S ACTIONS NOT DISQUALIFYING FOR MANY VOTERS: While critics within his own party, the Democratic Party and the media view him as unfit for office, millions of voters disagree. Instead, many of his supporters have become convinced that Trump is a victim of a political witch hunt. At least half of Republicans surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos earlier this year said they would have no problem voting for Trump even if he were convicted of a crime. Trump can also point to his four years in office and argue that the machinery of government largely functioned, if at times chaotically, despite fears he could not govern and that the worst allegations about him – such as his colluding with Russia – were never proven.

4. BIDEN GETS ALL THE BLAME, NO CREDIT: Trump can also take advantage of a White House that, so far, has been unable to persuade much of the public that Biden’s job-creation policies – through heavy government investment in infrastructure, clean energy and chip manufacturing – have made a difference to their lives. Biden also has been saddled with a pair of foreign wars that have divided Americans. Trump’s non-interventionist, “America first” message may resonate with voters fearful of further U.S. involvement in Ukraine or Israel while Biden maintains a more traditional, interventionist American foreign policy.