[EDITORIAL] El-Rufai’s Defection To SDP: A Political Earthquake And Major Setback For Tinubu In 2027

In politics, subtraction is never good. Every political strategist understands that the strength of a ruling party lies in its ability to consolidate, not fragment. This is why the recent defection of Nasir El-Rufai, the former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and two-term Governor of Kaduna State, from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is sending shockwaves through the polity.

While some may attempt to downplay this move, the reality is that El-Rufai’s exit from the APC is a huge political earthquake—one that could have dire consequences for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027. Reason is that this is not just any defection; it is rather the loss of a political heavyweight with firm political influence in the North, a region that has historically played a decisive role in Nigeria’s presidential elections.

The APC’s political dominance has largely been built on its ability to secure a substantial share of votes from the North, a region known for its bloc voting patterns. In 2015 and 2019, this played out in Buhari’s favour. Infact, the same occured in 2023 to justify why Tinubu went for a Muslim/Muslim ticket. However, with the internal crisis within the APC, the APC is now struggling to maintain its grip on the North.

El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP only exacerbates this problem. As a two-term governor of Kaduna, he remains one of the most influential politicians in the region. Unambiguous is his ability to mobilize voters, especially in key northern states. This cannot be dismissed. If he actively works against Tinubu, the APC may find itself bleeding votes in a region that is already showing signs of disenchantment with the ruling party.

Furthermore, El-Rufai is a northern politician who still commands considerable applause and respect among the political elite and the electorate. It can’t be dismissed that his technocratic approach to governance, combined with his role in defining the APC’s success in 2015, makes him a formidable force. However, his departure would signal internal discontent within the party, and where one influential figure goes, others often follow.

Political defections rarely occur in isolation. When a figure as prominent as El-Rufai leaves a ruling party, it emboldens others who have been sitting on the fence. Already, reports indicate that numerous politicians—especially those who feel sidelined in the APC—are defecting to the SDP. This raises a crucial question: Could El-Rufai’s move trigger a wave of defections that weakens the APC’s structure ahead of 2027?

If history is anything to go by, the answer is yes. In 2014, the APC itself rose to power due to a mass defection of top politicians from the then-ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The same playbook could be unfolding once again, only this time, against the APC.

Beyond the internal implications for the APC, there is also a growing narrative that El-Rufai’s defection could be tied to a broader realignment of opposition forces ahead of 2027. Speculation is rife that he may eventually join forces with Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, as his running mate in an effort to oust Tinubu.

If this happens, it could be a game-changer. Obi already enjoys widespread support in the South-East and among urban voters nationwide. However, his major weakness in 2023 was his inability to secure significant votes in the North. El-Rufai, with his northern credentials and strong political network, could bridge that gap. Such a ticket—combining Obi’s popularity among youth and urban voters with El-Rufai’s northern influence—could pose a serious threat to Tinubu’s re-election bid.

El-Rufai’s exit also exposes the unabated cracks within the APC. His defection is not an isolated case but a symptom of growing discontent within the party. Since Tinubu’s inauguration, various factions within the APC have felt alienated, with complaints of unfulfilled promises, lack of inclusivity, and a sense that certain individuals are being sidelined in the party’s power structure.

El-Rufai himself had faced multiple battles within the APC, especially regarding his ministerial nomination, which was ultimately blocked. His exit is a clear indication that not all is well within the ruling party. If the APC fails to address these internal rifts, more high-profile defections could follow, further weakening its position ahead of the next election.

With the 2027 presidential election still some years away, El-Rufai’s defection is an early warning sign for Tinubu and the APC. It presents the growing challenges the party will face in maintaining its dominance, especially in the North. In politics, perception is everything, and the perception that the APC is losing key figures could dampen confidence in the party’s ability to retain power.

Furthermore, if opposition forces successfully unite—whether through an Obi-El-Rufai ticket or another coalition—the 2027 election could become a fiercely competitive race rather than a predictable APC victory.

El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP is definitely more than just a political move; it is a major shake-up that could reshape Nigeria’s political terrain. For the APC and Tinubu, it represents a dangerous crack in their northern support base, one that could widen if not properly managed.

As 2027 approaches, all eyes will be on how this defection influences political realignments, party strategies, and ultimately, the battle for Nigeria’s highest office. One thing is however certain which is that El-Rufai has once again proven that in Nigerian politics, nothing is ever set in stone.